The Potential Profits and Perils of Digital Distribution

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Last week saw two major developments in the world of digital distribution of PC games. First, we got an answer to one question that is frequently asked during discussions of the technology, "What happens when one of these services goes down?" Triton, the digital distribution service hosting Human Head's Prey as well as numerous other titles, shut down as its parent company Digital Interactive Streams folded. At that point, many people who purchased the game through Triton had as yet been unable to even play it, leaving many to wonder how they would be compensated. Following a promise from a Triton employee that some kind of patch was forthcoming, producer 3D Realms and publisher 2K Games made the surprising announcement that every person who had purchased Prey via Triton would be receiving a boxed copy of the game at no additional cost and with no further action required.

2K Games' and 3D Realms' solution to the problem is an admirable and straightforward one, but it is worth noting that it came from the game's publisher, not from Triton itself. A genuine concern remains as to what will happen when particular services cease to exist. If this becomes a common trend, it is probably safe to say that publishers will not be particularly interested in taking the risk of sending out thousands of free packaged games after signing with a digital distribution service.

The other big surprise last week was that publisher Activision pledged support for Valve's Steam download service with four of its games, including three Call of Duty titles as well as Neversoft's Western shooter GUN. After gaining a reputation for attracting smaller developers using Steam as a primary or at least major distribution channel for their games, last week's announcement saw a major publisher sign on. This in itself is not remarkable; Activision games have already been available through other download services, and publishers such as Electronic Arts and Sega have made a number of their PC games available for purchase and download through their own online storefronts. More significant is the continually increasing support for Steam, now from an extremely broad chunk of the gaming spectrum.

Steam also demonstrated yet another potential niche to fill. Double Fine Productions' critically acclaimed but modestly selling platform adventure Psychonauts was added to the service courtesy of publisher Majesco, which also added a few other titles. The independently developed but publisher-funded Psychonauts falls in between publisher-owned properties such as Activision's and completely indie productions such as Introversion's Darwinia and DEFCON. Long has the industry lacked any kind of "second wind" mechanism for games that performed poorly at retail but generated increased buzz after release. In the film industry, VHS and, to an even greater degree, DVD retail sales have offered such an opportunity to capture newly developed momentum without an impractical and almost surely unprofitable second theatrical release. DVD releases allow studios to refocus marketing after having gained a better idea of the product's appropriate audience. The situation is not directly comparable to games, for a variety of obvious reasons, but it is certainly analagous.

One disadvantage, a disadvantage of digital distribution in general, is the lack of added value over the original retail release. In almost every case, publishers do not sell physical components alongside digitally distributed games, and on top of that, prices are not necessarily lower than they would be in a retail setting. Value comes from factors such as convenience, the knowledge that less money for the publisher or developer is intercepted by the combination of distributor and retailer middlemen, and, in the case of these "second wind" games, simply the ability to find a game that may be nearly nonexistent at retail. There are also benefits such as streamlined or automatic patching as well as a more direct line of communication and content between developers and gamers. For multiplayer games, services like Steam allow a centralized friends list. It remains to be seen if publishers will actually take advantage of the potential opportunities with "rereleasing" a game online, beyond simply making it available. Lower overhead and quicker turnaround times may mean publishers feel able to allocate new marketing funds for highly targeted online advertising, but many may instead come to the conclusion that further marketing is superfluous since any new sales are essentially "free."

What is interesting to consider now is whether there is room for anyone else. Steam has amassed a gaming library that, at this stage, lacks in sheer number of available titles compared to a retail location, but in many ways is surpassing the breadth of variety found in a gaming speciality shop such as GameStop. In addition to all of Valve's first party products, Steam has casual games such as Bejeweled and Zuma, numerous titles from independent developers ranging from high concept multiplayer games to smaller scale arcade-like games, and the aforementioned games from third party publishers.

There are plenty of download "portals" that have been accessible to gamers for years, and as noted some publishers and developers have their own exclusive download services, but most of them are fairly limited either to almost entirely casual games, or to games from a single company. In the last couple of years, other more fully featured services have entered the scene. Stardock's TotalGaming.net, nee The Drengin Network, offers the company's own products as well as a selection of third party strategy, adventure, and action games. Manifesto Games, formed last year by veteran designer Greg Costikyan and former Computer Gaming World editor Dr. Johnny Wilson, has the explicit goal of promoting innovative and interesting PC gaming by serving as something of a complete portal for the independent development scene. Costikyan has even given indication that at some point Manifesto would like to actually provide funding for certain titles, something that does not appear to be part of the stated business plan for its competitors.

Again, though, the question remains: is there much room for anyone besides Steam? Beyond that, how practical would such a scenario be? For many gamers, one of the biggest advantages of digital distribution is convenience and being able to deal with all major game download purchases from a single application. Relying on a multitude of proprietary software and download sites would not be a particularly appealing notion for most people, and would make things all the more complicated when reformatting one's hard drive or switching to a new PC. There are some benefits to a single service being the de facto go-to point for downloadable games. If, for example, Steam manages to achieve some kind of critical mass--and Activision signing on may be an indication that mainstream success is on the way--it could become an even better platform for smaller developers who need to capture only a small amount of the market share that is necessary for a large scale, full budget game to be successful. We have already seen examples of this with Steam. Various games rereleased on Valve's service have seen success that is undeniably significantly improved from their original releases, be it online or in retail stores. The service's existing install base alone is a huge boon for developers, and the resulting amount of concentrated word of mouth that results among online gaming communities is likely greater than what could be achieved even if simultaneously releasing on several competing services.

Of course, there are always downsides to any one product or service holding heavy domination over the market. As competition decreases, so does competitive pricing, and many gamers have already expressed frustration with downloadable game pricing not offering enough of a savings, and in some cases no savings, over retail purchases. There's also the issue of the problems that would occur if the dominant service suffered widespread technical difficulties or downtime. Such risks would have even more impact if digital distribution ever manages to capture a hefty chunk of the game sales market. For that matter, until it does that, certain other factors such as pricing are unlikely to improve. Particularly in the case of games that have a retail release as well as an online release, retailers and publishers handling brick and mortar deals fight tooth and nail to ensure that download services do not undercut retail stores. In the industry's current state, operators of download services have little leverage against such demands.

One factor that may provide a boost to digital distribution is the advent of episodic gaming, something that in many cases not conducive to retail sales. The first installments of Valve's Half-Life 2 episodes and Ritual's SiN Episodes have each received a retail launch simultaneously with their online releases, but those games are better described as simply shorter and more affordable versions of full length games. They do not seem to have the regular release schedule and extremely short format one would expect from an "episode." Currently, Telltale Games is about to pursue a business model that is more genuinely episodic. Each of the company's upcoming Sam & Max episodes will run only a few hours in length but starting with the second episode will be delivered on a monthly basis for under $10 each. The games will be compiled into a retail package after all six episodes of the first season are complete, but will not be sold in stores individually. Appropriately, they are being initially distributed through the GameTap service, which operates on a subscription basis rather than a price-per-game basis. (A few weeks later, Sam & Max will be downloadable straight from Telltale.) GameTap takes a different approach than Steam and other similar services, giving gamers who pay its monthly fee access to its entire library of games as long as they remain members. The effectiveness of Telltale's development strategy and GameTap's distribution strategy remains to be seen, but they have some key differences from other digital distribution services and games sold over them, and they have certain advantages that are simply not possible with traditional retail.

Currently, the landscape of digital distribution is something like a gold rush. It's new and exciting, there's clearly money to be made, there are a lot of people trying to run in and make it, and they all have different ideas on how to do so. The internet has proven to be remarkably good at creating situations like that, but not necessarily quite as good at sustaining them in a healthy, useful, and commercial way. Still, despite the caveats, a flourishing digital distribution scene could be just what the PC gaming industry needs to keep independent developers strong and to mitigate financial risk in order to allow for greater creative risk. Then again, it may become dominated by large publishers, and marketing dollars will take over. You just never know in this industry.

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