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$500 million 2006 estimated casual games market (1)
$800 million estimated 2007 WoW subscriptions (2)
$360 million conservative estimate of all other MMO revenue (3)
$100 million conservative estimate download games (steam, gametap, etc.) (4)
Total Estimated PC Gaming Market (excluding hardware) for 2007 = $2.67 Billion
Total Estimated NPD Console Market (includes hardware) for 2007 = $8.6 Billion
Assuming 4 consoles (Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, DS), (straight) average share of console market = $2.15 Billion
(1)
http://findarticles.com/p/arti...6_Nov_1/ai_n16852353
http://www.casualgamesassociat...es2006Report_CGA.pdf
http://www.gamespot.com/news/6175957.html
These three sources each claim casual gaming is growing and may exceed $650 million in 2008.
(2)
Simple math here. I assumed that Blizzard had averaged approximately 7 million subscribers in 2007 (down from the 10 million they currently report). 7,000,000 x 12 months x $10 monthly subscription = $840,000,000. Some people buy subscription cards at retail and other buy annual subscriptions at a discount so I knocked the average monthly fee to $10 down from $14.99. Furthermore I downward adjusted the $840 Million to a nice round $800 million to be conservative. This number doesn't include any game software (retail).
(3)
There are many other MMOs, and virtually all of them are on the PC. http://www.mmogchart.com aggregates and reports on MMO subscription numbers. From this chart here (http://www.mmogchart.com/Chart4.html) you can see that the total number of MMO subscriptions was around 13MM to 14MM in 2007. Let's give half of them to WoW and then calculate using the above formula the value of the remaining 6MM (I'll adjust the monthly fee to $5 as some MMOs are free). 6,000,000 x 12 months x $5 = $360MM.
(4)
Its been reported that Valve has 15MM Steam subscribers. Let's assume that in 2007 that number is half that, 7.5 MM. Assuming on average that each of these subscribers has spent only $10 (many valve games are bought at retail, eg.), that's $75MM for Valve alone. I project all other digital game download services were responsible for the remaining $25MM.
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