Weekend Confirmed 166 - Xbox One
by Ozzie Mejia, May 24, 2013 11:00am PDTJeff Cannata is a man on an island (a Hawaiian one, that is), which leaves host Garnett Lee to captain the S.S. Weekend Confirmed alone. He's joined this week by his hardened crew of "Indie" Jeff Mattas, the Escapist's Andrea Rene, and Double Jump's Christian Spicer. Their destination: The fabled isle of Xbox One. The team discusses Tuesday's reveal event, what we know about the new console, and dive into the pile of unknowns and what-if's. After discussing the hardware, features, and rumors, everyone discusses reader reaction and how the Xbox One will fare against stiff competition from Sony and Nintendo. The show ends with some non-Xbox related Finishing Moves.
Weekend Confirmed Ep. 166: 5/24/2013
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Weekend Confirmed comes in four segments to make it easy to listen to in segments or all at once. Here's the timing for this week's episode:
Show Breakdown:
Round 1 - 00:00:34 - 00:30:02
Whatcha Been Playin Part 1 - 00:31:14 - 01:00:20
Whatcha Been Playin Part 2 - 01:01:59 - 01:30:18
Feedback/Finishing Moves - 01:32:12 - 02:05:50
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Andrea Rene @andrearene
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Original music in the show by Del Rio. Check out his latest music video, I Brought It Here, featuring cameos from Jeff Cannata and Christian Spicer on YouTube. Get his latest Album, Club Tipsy on iTunes. Check out more, including the Super Mega Worm mix and other mash-ups on his ReverbNation page or Facebook page, and follow him on twitter @delriomusic.
New game releases of May 27-June 2
Wargame: Airland Battle trailer details dynamic campaign
Halo 'Bootcamp' confirmed by Microsoft
Weekend PC download deals: Tomb Raider for $14
Game Dev Tycoon studio outlines future plans




Comments
So as far as games the one is going to be the spot to play them, because it will have the most content.
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Loved the show and the discussions on Xbox being always on and watching/listening..
I was listening to a UK podcast directly after the announcement and they brought up a subject which others seem to have missed for now.
One of the reporters stated that they had just moved out of their parents and that the xbox was in the bedroom.
So you want to have the new xbox one always on. Always watching the listening in your kids bedrooms? They finished by calling this a child watching machine.
Where do you think the press will go if this becomes a wider issue with tech that is always watching your children sleep?
I appreciate this is an extreme point but has Microsoft in its rush for the living room forgotten most kids play in their bedroom while mum and dad relax alone downstairs?
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The way game developers are structured forces them to put out games to sustain themselves, rather than make a game because of a creative idea. This is basically the film industry's "studio system" from the "Golden Age" of Hollywood, ie---(a) producing movies primarily on their own film making lots with creative personnel under often long-term contract, and (b) dominating exhibition through vertical integration
This business model is A. inefficient, because it forces a film studio to constantly keep itself afloat with regular content output. And B. it undermines individual talents that really make content shine. Auteurs like Quentin Tarantino and even Stephen Spielberg could not exist in the studio system. That also goes to the idea of games not being able to have their own "Academy Awards" and so forth because every developer is part of a unit.
That said, look at someone like Hideo Kojima. He cultivated a fan base based on his individual vision. He's probably the only professional in the industry who can say that, and still has credibility with the audience. However, in recent years he's been hampered with basically the total fiscal survival of Konami, because they can't output shit as a developer anymore.
If he doesn't keep making Metal Gear games, arbitrarily adding to the lore, making it ever more convoluted and wearing out his favor with gamers, Konami will essentially stop making console titles and/or go bankrupt. Compare him to a Quentin Tarantino in the film industry. Harvey Weinstein is Tarantino's regular collaborator, but Weinstein doesn't depend on Tarantino to make money. Tarantino's vision is the horse of a film, and its making is the cart of the film.
So as is game developers pump out a game products solely to continue paying their employees' salaries. If they adopted the film industry's production methods, artistic vision and commercial viability could convene much more. You know, Paramount doesn't have an in house costume designer. The film industry does have unions, and lots of tightly wound networks, but because films are so expensive to make, they learned to divorce production from ownership as it were.
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So I think part of the reaction to Microsoft is not just the policy itself, but its the lack of these kinds of innovations that make DRM not seem so obtrusive. You know everyone loves Gabe Newell. But Phil Harrison looks like Lord Voldremort, talking about how he's going to cast a Horcrux on our foreheads through the Kinect if we're trying to watch a movie with too many people on our couch. He's like "I shalst grant you permissions for the games you buy, if you cooperate. Otherwise I will have Nagini eat your parents!"
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The discussion this week was great, and I think you did a nice job covering the issue from the point of view of the consumer.
I wanted to bring up the perspective of the retailer (Garnett, I'd love your insight on this in particular).
I work in a guitar shop. Like most guitar stores, we sell both new and used instruments. But from a business point of view, we always focus on selling new instruments. Why? Because we make more money from them. Of course, when I'm helping someone look for a guitar, I want them to find a guitar they are happy with. But all other elements being equal, if the choice comes down to a new guitar and a used guitar, I'll suggest the new one because it is better for our business.
As many of us know, videogame retailers like GameStop push used games so hard because they make more money off them. But I think most people don't realize how little money retailers make from new games.
I ordered a Halo 4 edition 360 console from my local store in Toronto last fall. I've been going there for years, and am familiar with the owner, so he is pretty comfortable chatting with me. I made some joke about all the money I was dropping on Halo 4, and the owner the shop said "yep, and we make a whopping $4 on this".
"No Way..." I said.
"Yep... $4" said the owner.
$4 profit. On a $400 unit.
As a purchaser for my shop, if a distributor came to me and said "Hey we've got this great product, it sells for $400, you get a 1% profit margin!" I would tell them to fuck right off.
If publishers want to win the support of the retailers, maybe they should try a pricing model that allows retailers to make enough profit to survive.
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Garnett, Andrea, and Alex Albrecht were on the most recent episode of Bonus Round, breaking down the Xbox One. Enjoy the show!
http://www.gametrailers.com/full-episodes/qas7id/bonus-round-dissecting-the-microsoft-press-conference
I do agree the One needs some sort of DVR add-on even if it is only for the America.
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The first point is that the "mono computer" is dead. This doesn't mean that the "personal computer" is dead. It means that "personal computer" is no longer a semantically useful category. Every device you own now is more personal than actual "PCs" so its a pointless term to use.
That said, the whole idea of Xbox being "All in One" for everything you do, is totally antithetical to the trajectory of consumer electronics. Sony more intelligently stated at PS Meeting that they would follow gamers in and out of the living room.
The third point is that Microsoft has a totally warped understanding of the cloud, or is trying to compensate for a lack of specs and/or is selling gamers a Ken Kutaragi pipe dreams of "infinite power" so that they won't get pissed off about "always online" bullshit.
Microsoft's counter argument to this has been that they will use the cloud for aspects of games at are not "latency sensitive." But aside from bandwidth issues galore, that is not the only problem with cloud gaming. As Gabe Newell said:
Newell said "cloud gaming works until it starts to be successful — at which point, it falls over." Newell says that there's a growing network cost that comes with maintaining the backend as the platform explodes, instead of an individual cost per console, or PC, or Steam Box.
http://www.dvice.com/2013-2-11/valves-gabe-newell-skeptical-cloud-gaming-future
So the whole problem with cloud gaming as a service is that you end up consumers have to lease a console on a 1 to 1 basis. Its an inherently inefficient model for actual gameplay. That said Gabe Newell has the opposite problem in that the "mono computer" includes every device that Steam runs on.
Look at the fact that Adobe recently adapted its Creative Suite software into a Cloud Service and its incredibly successful. If you can subscribe to Photoshop for $80, you can conceivably run it on a $200 tablet with a "retina display" thanks to the cloud, and you can buy a game console for like $300, why in the fuck would you buy a $1000-3000 inefficient nightmare of a computer to go alongside it?
I agree with Newell that local streaming will have future relevance for video games, but we will stream our games from video game consoles not from these current "desktop" monstrosities. You know one of my questions about the PS4 is "why would Sony run OS off of DDR5 memory" its actually inefficient for small computational tasks.
Well I think the answer is maybe they won't. Maybe they'll be smart an use Gaikai to supplement all the PS4's OS with the multitasking and social features. And they'll realize everyone and their dog has some kind of tablet or smartphone anyway. What I see emerging from the whole computing sector in general is that video game processing has to become more specialized. I mean rather than anchoring people in the living room, you should be able to put your console in your bedroom, and plug your screen into it---be it a tablet, a monitor, or a full blown tv---rather than the other way around.
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The problem with Andrea's idea is that is doesn't provide any benefit to the consumer. The only real positive is that it's not as bad as the alternatives.
As for the "discount", we already get that now. Most games drop in price 30-90 days after release and the ones that don't wouldn't be subject to the artificial window anyway. Do you think activision is really going to sell COD 5 for $40 when people are still buying it at $60.
It also limits the ability of people to trade/ borrow games with/from friends. (and yes I realize this is somewhat archaic)
Finally, this would be very hard to implement as it would have to be on a game by game basis and you would never really have any price security on the games you want to buy.
But in lieu of the other means of dealing with used games, heck yeah I'd take it.
p.s. I really see this going the other way. Publishers charging for early access for preorders, etc.
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Also, my thoughts on the Xbox One thing since everyone's sharing:
As of right now, I don't think the Xbox One is for me. I give them an F for not showing any games and the TV stuff was pure crap...focusing on what I saw versus what I think Xbox One will be or MS will deliver on in the future.
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as regards to my post, you guys hit it right on the bullseye. xbox is being targeted for mass market with locking in the big blockbusters in the US: NFL, Call of Duty and user friendly UI for all in one stop shop entertainment center in the living room. The only market next gen that they have an opportunity to penetrate is Europe and they are doubling down on the FIFA exclusive DLC.
if you take a look as a regular consumer, with constrained expendable income, you will buy the box that offers the most bang for the buck, has the big blockbuster exclusive partnerships and that plays next gen games. Microsoft is doing a great job positioning Xbox One as the system of choice for majority of consumers. They will have games that gamers want: Next Gears, Respawns exclusive FPS MMO, Bungie's MMO, Phantasy Star Online 2, Halo 5, Next Mass Effect, Red Dead Redemption 2, Half Life, Final Fantasy, and 8 new IPs.
Its going to have next gen games...now what else can it do? that is the question Xbox One is doing well to answer for MASS MARKET APPEAL.
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The game still looks solid tho and I still think it is lots of fun.
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For me, any kind of Twitter/fantasy league interaction is going to have to wait until after the game, as I'm watching on a delay and don't want anything spoiled. But maybe I'm in the minority?
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1) That the XBox (this is how I will refer to it from now on) is the one that will most likely continue to the lead development platform. This was a huge advantage for XBox in this generation. It should not be as big an advantage this time around with such similar architecture in both systems, but I feel that is a very calculated move on the part of MS.
2) The cloud computing thing obviously scares people. I understand why. I think that MS saw what a long life cycle the 360 had, and how much money they stand to make by the end of it, and thought how about we try to make this next thing last longer. Sure the tech is only to a point now where we may be able to offload certain computations and functions, but it a technology that will undoubtedly get better and as it does the abilities of the console will grow with it. Hopefully making this a box with a longer life cycle. I should say here that if you think Sony is thinking anything different after the acquisition of GaiKai you are nuts. Lets not forget that the expansion of servers for streaming was talked about at that conference as well.
3) Garnetts statement about what he wanted. Basically a search and sort feature for all your entertainment apps and programming. This one would be amazing. I think that it may already be in there for the most part. What is the one phrase we didn't see used in the conference that was a huge push in the final stages of the 360? "Xbox Bing" , sure bing was on the screen when they showed internet explorer, but not in the fashion it was on the 360. I don't think the DVR will be there because MS wanted the integrated TV functionality and to do that they need deals with providers and you don't get those by taking money out of their pockets. The rest of it could be as easy as "Xbox Bing Friends the with the free porn" and it shows you local listing of when it will be on or where you can purchase it or stream it. That I think is a no brainer and I have a feeling it may already be there.
Great show as always. Keep up the great work!
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Also, how fat and lazy can anyone be to not bother moving a muscle to use a remote control? Are you kidding me, Microsoft?
Is there any sane person here who would sit down to watch a movie and then would have the desire or urge to play a game? What the hell are these unnecessary, stupid features? Oh look you can Skype while watching a movie. REALLY? Who uses Skype here while the movie is playing? We pause the movie, then call someone. Is this how lazy Microsoft thinks Americans are? (Btw, I'm not American).
It's basically a glorified remote controller. The only real neat feature is pulling up the "internet explorer" (YUCK) to find info while playing a game. That's it. All the other crap like "Instantly switch" between watching sports to driving a car in Forza to watching Star Trek to listening to wub-wub dubstep are just too stupid.
Then we have the used game space, which I can't believe some people actually are for. If Microsoft+Gamestop have any control to the used game space, that would eliminate the free market "standard" of the prices. It'll be a freaking monopoly. Imagine you can't sell or buy games using private transactions (eBay, Kijiji). You're left with Gamestop. What's stopping them to offer you $5 for that used game? NOTHING. It's either their $5 or your game goes to the garbage bin since you can't sell it anywhere. They need to deactivate your license through their computers, you can't do it. Now that would also mean you can't buy used games elsewhere, so what's stopping them to charge you $50 for any used games?
I read in a forum that X-Men Origins Wolverine The Game is selling for $29 digitally on Xbox Live. A game so low in demand it can't even sell itself out of the bargain bin in the free market is selling for $29 on Xbox Marketplace. MS can pretty much set any price floor or ceiling on games, these greedy bastards.
Once we become "okay" with this system, it'll be game over. It's harder to get out of a system in place than to prevent one from materializing.
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I have to agree with Andrea here, you would think a huge games like that you pay for smaller project, but NO. Activision will just invest in bug projects and that's it.
TERRIBLE.
THEY'RE DESTROYING THE INDUSTRY.
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Whether the One allows them or not it seems certain they're going to try to cut Gamestop out of the loop. So lets assume that the profit margin will drop to 10% on the actual disk at maximum.
American based presentation or not, Gamestop is the primary video game retailer in america, if they make it corporate policy to give a spoken warning of "This will not work without a daily internet connection, this will not allow you to sell used games" then I could see that shoving people towards a PS4.
What would be likely? Shelf space manipulation? Would they actually willingly press the PS4 forwards wtihout Sony sweetening the deal at all? Seeing it as a matter of 'the enemy of my enemy is my friend?'
Or are the stores too removed from each other for any corporate mandate to have much effect?
Whatcha think Garnett Lee?
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As for the issues with Bandwidth in Canada I don't know what part of the country the person whose comment you read out is. But I'm with Shaw and as any caps as far as I can tell are soft caps. As my roommate and I are constantly downloading games on steam which are ~8GB's or so and haven't received any complaintes from our provider.
So as far as I can tell both companies need some platform specific titles to really sell me on them.
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With that said I understand why Microsoft would want to take this away from me but what do they think the endgame is? That I am going to spend $1800 a year on games? Not going to happen, I'm also not going to opt for a console that I can only afford to play 5-6 games a year on. I'm not that type of gamer. If I play the latest Call of Duty I burn through the campaign and move on, it provides a week of entertainment if I am lucky.
I don't really have the solution to this "problem", but I do know this, when games that I am extremely excited about are released I buy them day one. The games that have gotten me excited in the past are Enslaved, Dead Space 2, Prince of Persia(cell shaded), Alan Wake. If Microsoft creates games that push the boundaries of innovation then I will be there when it comes out. I'm not going to pay you for AAA blockbuster games that follow the same formula year over year.
second my vizeo TV can do yahoo fantasy sports, which I use for NFL as a little bar, Netflix ect. so I am not sure why I need another device to do what my TV does just fine.
now the reason I am upset by this is because the way they position the xbox one is that is a semi-huge feature and will come in to the machine regarding price. as the gamer who wanted the new gaming machine, I don't want to pay the what 50-200 bucks extra for those features they put in the xbox one because it's not a gaming machine anymore but an all in one.
I have not done much with playstation this generation, but I really am questioning the purchase of a PS4 over the xbox one at start. I will of course wait for E3 and to see which system will be better at running things like Witcher 3, Destiny, who has RPG's and things of this nature, more now then ever before as I have gotten older I am looking to see which will b more favorable to software over what it's hardware can do. The reason I feel this way is because the way things are now and going ot be, almost every device can do what an all in one device can do. I am sure 2 years from now, even tablets could run games just as well and do everything else, while also being hdmi'd to my TV with a controller. it makes me wonder why the first impression from Microsoft was about features almost all gamers have elsewhere, while sony made sure to let you know the first impression is games, all types of games, and ways to share them with your friends.
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One last thought on entertainment and life. Nothing really belongs to anyone. You can’t take it with you when you die. Your life, your consciousness is a collection of memories. You spend money on games to entertain yourself. If you enjoyed the game and it created some good times and good memories with friends and family then that was money well spent. If you spent money like we all have on a movie, music or a game that sucked, that too is a memory, and often a great conversation. We should appreciate the great experiences and understand that the bad ones make the good ones even better and stop complaining about everything as if the world owes us something.
That being said, I really don't get the hate for xbox one.
Of course I also don't get the hate for Windows 8, so what do I know?
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I wonder if he has any new insight on reciprocity.
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Lets look at the known/likely MS-published releases for the Xbox One:
Quantum Break*
Ryse*
Forza 5
Halo 5
Dance Central 4
Kinect Sports 3
Kinect Adventures 2^
Kinectimals 2^
Crackdown 3
Kinect game by Twisted Pixel*
Fable 4
Dead Rising 3^
Now, MS claims to have 15 exclusive titles for launch year, with 8 being new franchises, so I put a star next to those. I put an arrow next to the ones I think MS might just reconceptualize into a "new" franchises.
I'd love to be wrong about this, but even if I'm wrong on a few of these, I just don't know if they'll really have the guns to sell this system to the initial purchaser.
Kinect was a great way to get more buyers in on the 360. Not truly a great product, but it sold. Is it really a great way to sell a new system?
I don't think so.
I'm still hoping to be converted, but I'm not feeling great about the Xbox One's chances.
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"THA govurnment wants to take our guns bluhbluhbluh --- this isn't CSPAN."
"Its this weird world where the cable companies still have a lot of power."
Garnett
"Or persevered power!"
So, A. Chrisitan you're clearly ignorant on this topic. B. Garnett, their power isn't "perceived" it is 100% real. This is the exact thing I commented about WEEKS ago when we were speculating over an "obviously false" rumor. The United States infrastructure for cable and internet is stratified by WEALTH, and it is vertically integrated with content controlled by basically 2 corporations for the entire United States.
You guys talked about how Xbox One's integration with NFL games makes it a cool proposition. Well what network airs NFL games? NBC. What network did the Comcast just purchase earlier this year? NBC. Hmm now if Comcast controls both the pipeline through which you access content, and the content you really want to see, do you think they have any interest in making deals with third parties to access that content?
Microsoft had to pay the NFL like $400 million supposedly just for "exclusive NFL content" through Xbox Live. Gee, maybe you football fans will get some Kinect smello-vision to your favorite team's locker room!
How much of that $400 million dollars do you think comes out of Gold subscribers pockets? How about all of it. That is not "perceived power" Garnett. That is shit loads of money going to waste, whether or not the people buying it even like football.
So if you're going to bitch about how Microsoft's strategy here sucks, you should go through the trouble of educating yourself on the politics that drove them to this position. You can't just demagogue a corporation if you're not willing to think about the circumstances and causes of their actions.
If you want a good primer on this issue (anyone who is concerned about Microsoft's Xbone strategy), watch this interview with Susan Crawford on Bill Moyers.
Interview with Crawford:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xI847vQTto
One of the points Crawford often raises is that tech people think they can "geek around" cable duopolies power. Well I, and the executive at Microsoft, are here to tell you that you're being naive! Netflix and Hulu are nice, but the bottom line is that they deliver their video through the pipe that cable companies control. And here's a pro tip: Microsoft doesn't want to be a tv network no matter how many Halo tv shows they license. And they don't want to be like Google and run a fiber wire to your home either. They would rather make a deal with Comcast, and get in on scamming and gouging consumers.
Also, look at bandwidth caps for instance. A. For Comcast, the internet service they offer is only a small part of their pipeline. Most of that pipline goes to broadcast tv. There are 2 reasons for this. 1. Unlike fiber, the bundled copper wire they use has shitty upload speeds. It is designed for passive entertainment. 2. reason is they want to control how you consume video because they get higher profits that way.
B. on data caps: Data usage doesn't cost anything for companies. All the cost for running wire is upfront. But---surprise---private companies don't want to build more wire because that would mean less profits, which pisses off their share holders, who---another surprise---are more important to them than the actual consumers of their service.
That said they also don't want to provide the internet for poor people, because poor people can't pay $150 a month for a "value bundle." By that I mean, they don't just want to avoid selling it to poor people. Poor people don't even get the option to buy it, and when they do its actually more expensive. Again this is real power being wielded by only a few corporations, and you can't just brush it off.
*Rant complete.
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Now you can parse that out, and argue that a little brat swearing on XBL probably is savvy enough to watch Netflix or what have you, but the assumptions are there. Jeff Gerstman brought up the term "mono culture." That is exactly right. So you know, Microsoft aligning different media properties does not equate broadness. Seeing a game that isn't another fps with "exciting" on rails sequences and lots of brown would be a step towards broadness.
That said, come the holidays I'm ready and willing to plunk down cold hard cash for a new gaming system. To that end, so far the ps4 is looking a little better to me, even though I have loved my 360 for the past 6 years and have never owned a Sony console. But, E3 is just around the corner, and the games is what is going to make the difference for me.
The one point that I think the playstation has in its favor is a percieved greater interest in the indie space. Developers have described Microsoft as openly hostile, and it seems like Sony is trying their hardest to embrace that community.
The TV stuff is a wash, essentially DOA. It's not a cable box, it's not a DVR, and it can't interface with the DVR aspects of your cable box. Still requires cable service. It's a glorified GoogleTV.
The always on Kinect stuff doesn't bother me. I don't think their voice stuff is as impressive as what Google showed at I/O, but its cool enough,
http://i.minus.com/iBzvb2JSpQNRM.gif
pure genius.
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