Analyst Predicts Next-Gen Consoles Coming in 2013, HD Wii in 2010

By Nick Breckon, May 04, 2009 7:02pm PDT Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter, the crystal ball of gaming, now predicts that the next generation of consoles will debut no sooner than 2013.

"We do not expect the 'next' generation to begin before 2013, if at all," said Pachter in a newsletter today.

Specifically, Pachter said to not expect any new hardware in 2010 other than "the long-rumoured high definition Wii, which is likely to upgrade the Wii to current console technology."

"We remain convinced that the publishers will resist the introduction of any video game hardware technology that requires a refresh of software, as the publishers have as yet to capitalise on the immense investments made in being competitive in the current cycle," elaborated Pacther.

"We therefore think it is likely that the 'next' generation will begin after 2013, meaning that software sales are likely to grow by a compounded annual rate of 6-10 percent for another five years."

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25 Threads | 127 Comments

  • how about this food for thought:

    If we think of titles in terms functionality there are two major parts, the game logic/networking/AI and then the graphics system.

    Theoretically there isn't anything that CANT be done on the non graphics side with current hardware (PS3/360/PC).

    If you think in terms of de-coupling the graphics, what can you NOT do with them algorithmically? They all deliver a pretty staggering number of raw instructions per second.

    So if you were to compare what is being delivered today on current platforms in contrast to whats possible on "tomorrows" platforms, you would find that the big differentiation is the graphics or visual fidelity. The rest of the games programming could conceivably run very comfortably on today's hardware.

    So I have to ask, why haven't they (MS, Sony, Nin) embraced an architecture where the graphics are decoupled from the rest of the core programming in a way that could provide linear scaling of visual fidelity?

    This way you could support several different generations of console with one title.

    (yes, PC ALREADY does this but it would work even better on a console because programmers wont have to test it on a staggering number of hardware combination's)

  • 4 years from now would make a 6 to 7 year total cycle I spose (what's that 7 for 360 and 6 for PS3?)
    I can support that a little more than I can a 4 / 5 year cycle!

    My take, FWIW as an armchair analyst fag, who listens to podcasts more than games nowadays.
    There's a plethora of reasons to string this cycle out.

    *Sony and MS lost a shitload bringing out these new consoles, be it R&D, Marketing, Support / Warranties or whatever, they put their books in quite the red and they need to re-coup the losses, the longer they keep selling these as they become cheaprer to make the better.
    Also to be honest - I think they both rushed the PS3 and the 360 out, they would likely want a 'rest' right about now.

    *The economic crises is going to fuck them too, they can't be rushing out products to dipshit consumers ready to snap things up, sure the 'elite' on this messageboard might be inclined to buy a new console every 3 years but the real world doesn't work like that

    *Diminishing returns in both graphics and technology:
    The graphics of the last round is still kinda good (seriously! Fire up God of War 2 with component cables, fire up Fable or FFX12, Halo 2 - the last round is actually not that bad - dimishing returns are starting to kick in)
    The last round had networking, hard disks - as does this round.
    We've got wireless controllers, 'internet active' consoles, patching games, high def movie and game playback.
    Sure the odd game can't be done in full 1080p at 60frames but I tell you the jump from 720p 30fps to 1080p 60fps isn't going to be much compared to say N64 vs Xbox 1 for example.

    *Also on the bottom dollar thing, it cost so much to buy into this round it might take longer to make that cash back, no matter how big the market becomes.

    Now I'm not poor, I've got cash but there's something I thoroughly HATE about a new console generation, it's exciting and stuff but it's annoying as shit too, the flame wars are even worse than what you see now, the speculation, the research I have to do (as a wanker) to find out what's best to buy, it's really difficult and time consuming.
    I can absoloutely afford 3x600$ new consoles, it's not a problem but my TV cabinet, my existing library, my HDMI / Component inputs all say to me 'fuck you!'
    I really stand by my opinion that both the PS2 and the Xbox 1 could've been milked another 6 to even 12 months - the amazing games all came in the last 12 months. Microsoft rushed their cocks off for Xmas 06 (look how the fuck that worked out :( ... ) and no fanboy bullshit here from me - Sony, despite having longer time to release their new console made such a clusterfuck of the news / PR announcements / launch and initiail system features that it seemed rushed (!) even if it was out a year before the Xbox and came AFTER the 360! (wtf!)
    I'd rather have a well thought out machine with good features, support and reliability from the get go, I was happy with my XB1 and PS2 when the 360 came out, Iwas still happy with them when the PS3 came out.
    There's so many goddamn good games now, I still have PS2 and XB1 games to finish - so the longer this generation lasts, the better as far as I'm concerned.

    Disclaimer: I don't research or even think about Nintendo, having owned a Wii now and sold it they are completely and utterly not targetting my demographic, I guess they might do a HD Wii before Sony and MS do a new system but I doubt it'll even have the features of the PS3 and 360.
    Many tech geek Nintendo fans have in the past 2 years really railed on the Wii and Nintendo's focus and I can't blame them - they are simply not aiming for the tech geek demographic, also - I know some people disagree but having done some podcast listening and reading, Nintendo really do seem to re-hash the same fucking game time and time and time again (be it gameboy, GB colour, DS, GC or Wii) - they recycle old yet fun games - which is fine but.... god there's a lot of recycling in their catalogue.
    Good luck to them too I guess - HD Wii will likely be within 3 years (my guess) and backwards compatible, since the hardware is so cheap, being 8 years old or whatever it is.