Analyst predicts 'substantially disappointing' sales for Titanfall 2

A firm believes the game will sell poorly enough to offset Battlefield 1's significantly higher performance at market.

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Research firm Cowen & Company stated its projection that Titanfall 2's sales will be "substantially" disappointing for EA, so much so that the game's poor results will offset Battlefield 1's considerably stronger performance (via GameSpot).

Previously, the firm projected roughly nine million Titanfall 2 units sold. Cowen & Company adjusted its prognostication to between five and six million sales—not because of the game's quality, but because of unfortunate timing, sandwiched as it is between Battlefield 1 (released a week earlier on October 21) and Activision's forthcoming Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare.

"We suspect EA believed that by launching two shooters next to Call of Duty it could put a large dent in its biggest competitor, but instead EA appears to have wound up shooting its own foot off," the firm stated.

Indeed, EA CEO Andrew Wilson said earlier this spring that the publisher would attempt to canvas the shooter genre by releasing Titanfall 2 and Battlefield 1 in close proximity. Titanfall 2 released yesterday, Friday, October 28, while BF1 launched last Friday, October 21.

The idea was to give fans both frenetic first-person shooting via Titanfall 2, and more strategic gameplay in BF1, thus steering consumers toward EA products and away from Infinite Warfare, due to launch next Friday, November 4.

Premium editions of Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare will ship with a remastered version of 2007's Call of Duty 4: Advanced Warfare. It's considered one of the greatest and most influential shooters of all time, and could give Infinite Warfare even greater cachet for dedicated players looking to relive CoD4's glory days on modern consoles.

Cowen & Company filed its report ahead of EA's earnings briefing scheduled for next week. In that same report, it adjusted projected sales for BF1 from 14 million units to 16.5.

Long Reads Editor

From The Chatty

  • reply
    October 29, 2016 1:13 AM

    David Craddock posted a new article, Analyst predicts 'substantially disappointing' sales for Titanfall 2

    • reply
      October 29, 2016 3:46 AM

      I have been sitting out on this one, burned by the Paid DLC that ended up splitting the player base into atoms and then into nothing...

      But after this review http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2016-10-28-titanfall-2-review

      Here's hoping it finds an audience, too - it's just too good not to. This is benchmark stuff - a campaign that will be talked about for years, and multiplayer so compelling that it makes the competition feel clunky and staid in comparison.

      I went directly to Origin and bought the game, the tech test left me Cold, but after just two rounds of Attrition i am hooked again, imho TitanFall 1 was the best MP game since Quake, and this is right up there, slightly slower but with even more options and play styles to be explored..

      Ohh and this time NO PAID DLC TO FUCK THINGS UP, expansions will be free...

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        October 29, 2016 4:09 AM

        Is the wait between MP matches real long, due to lobby and loading screens and all? The original Titanfall would take in excess of over 5 minutes between matches (that'd last less than 5 minutes.) I don't know if they ever fixed that in the end, but it'd be frustrating to go through that again. I got burnt hard on the original TF.

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          October 29, 2016 4:11 AM

          Yeah, the down time between matches is shorter. Didn't time it, I will do that.

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          October 29, 2016 5:00 AM

          90 seconds

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            October 29, 2016 8:07 AM

            That includes matchmaking, load times, loadout selection and game starting? If so, that's pretty good.

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              October 29, 2016 8:10 AM

              Yes, next one was slightly shorter actually, so far impressed.

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        October 29, 2016 5:03 AM

        hmm, this talk....I might buy it straight up. I've got so many other games though, I mean playing witcher 3 and overwatch now....

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          October 29, 2016 7:20 AM

          Yeah, lesson learned. Smart move.

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          October 29, 2016 8:10 AM

          As i mentioned :)

          Ohh and this time NO PAID DLC TO FUCK THINGS UP, expansions will be free...

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        October 29, 2016 5:40 AM

        I haven't played much of the campaign yet. About an hour but I do not feel the same way as the review at all. The single player has no cohesion it's basically just look.... Fighting robots.... Next scene... Look, more fighting robots. It's strips away all your abilities at the start which is just frustrating. Can't double jump can't slide...im sure there's a bunch more I'm missing.

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          October 29, 2016 6:17 AM

          Campaign is mostly an introduction to the game mechanics, atleast that would be my guess. But apparently done in an extraordinary fashion

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          October 29, 2016 8:12 AM

          Well i just started the campaign, and as far as i can see i can do everything now after a pretty short introduction, you must have played for a very short time :)

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          October 29, 2016 1:05 PM

          You get those abilities like right away in the first mission and keep it. That was just a tutorial mission and done in VR so basically a preview. It fits the story since you aren't even a pilot at the start.

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      October 29, 2016 4:16 AM

      Let's see, the release of BF1, a titanic game franchise with what is arguably it's best version since whenever, and there is disappointing sales of this other game in the same week. Talk about EA pretty much ass fucking their own property....

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        October 29, 2016 6:26 AM

        Titanfall isn’t their IP. It is Respawn who is an EA partner. EA is just the publisher. If Respawn wanted to launch in that window, I imagine EA doesn’t care so long as they get paid.

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          October 29, 2016 6:34 AM

          Developers have less control over release windows than you might think. In many cases that decision falls under the purview of the publisher. If you're management at Respawn, do you really want your game to get squashed between Call of Duty and Battlefield? I wouldn't.

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            October 29, 2016 6:43 AM

            I can easily see the former makers of Call of Duty thinking that their game deserves a prime release slot and the people at EA looking at their calendars to decide this is the only prime position left in this quarter because they weren't going to harm their own interests and stockholders by publishing it in front of BF1.

            That wouldn't exactly be EA as morons. But, it is possible Respawn would have been okay releasing against Doom, Mirror Edge 2....

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              October 29, 2016 8:10 AM

              The first one launched in the Spring.

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                October 29, 2016 8:48 AM

                Yeah that spring window. Overwatch, Battleborn, Doom, Dark Souls 3.

                Summer was fairly less full, but you still had RE5 on PS4 and XBO...No Man's Sky (teehee).

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            October 29, 2016 8:35 AM

            But Respawn is not only a dev house, they have leverage and probably wanted to ship this holiday no matter what. I'm assuming there's part hubris from Respawn's founders, "we are bigshots who made MW", and part business sense in competing against COD and aetting up the franchise. This might not dethrone COD, but TF3 will be in a better place.

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            October 29, 2016 1:06 PM

            ^knows what's up

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              October 29, 2016 1:07 PM

              To clarify, that was in response to David's comment not shirif

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        October 29, 2016 7:22 AM

        Yeah seemed like a really bad idea on EA's part to have them both hit in the same month.

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        October 29, 2016 8:07 AM

        Everyone knew this would happen. It's like they sent the game out now to get slaughtered.

        Wonder if one of the higher ups wanted to "prove a point"

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        October 29, 2016 2:13 PM

        I think they are just carpet-bombing CoD to hopefully take a chunk out of them, considering MW:I is not resonating as strongly with its usual core audience. Blood in the water?

        EA gets paid first, so they will probably make their money back on it even with this move.

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          October 29, 2016 2:16 PM

          That's what I've been seeing this strategy as. Quantity is a quality of its own. And surprisingly the quality of these two games are very good.

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      October 29, 2016 5:05 AM

      Sadly, I think the only lesson EA is going to learn is that single player is a waste of resources.

      Meanwhile, if Call of Duty doesn't sell a bajillion+1 copies, Activision is going to shut the fucking studio down and "promote" another internal studio to be next in line for liquidation. I feel sorry for the guys stuck working under Activision's umbrella.

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        October 29, 2016 5:38 AM

        Yeah, I give zero fucks about single player in either BF1 or TF2. I will play them both as much as I can, but yes, I would have rather they were released a bit further apart.

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          October 29, 2016 5:55 AM

          I spend half the year wanting something to play, then get dumped on all these crazy games in like a 3 week period

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            October 29, 2016 8:38 AM

            When it rains, it pours. Thus are the dynamics of life (in most things really).

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            October 29, 2016 8:50 AM

            Yeah that drives me fucking nuts. Long summer gaming drought then a shit ton of games released all at once.

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          October 29, 2016 9:59 AM

          Team Fortress 2 had a single player component?

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            October 29, 2016 10:09 AM

            Was gonna say, that game is old but not old enough that we need to re-assign its acronym. >:(

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              October 29, 2016 12:39 PM

              i still cant see MW2/3/4 as anything other than Mechwarrior 2/3/4 :(

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            October 30, 2016 11:37 AM

            Titan Fall 2, bruh

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        October 29, 2016 9:56 AM

        I don't care for the SP in these games and I think you're wrong. A lot of people buy these games for the SP component, and the fact that they dedicated resources to put one in TF2 supports my point.

        One of the problems I see with the way they positioned (marketing-wise) TF2, though, is that many people got burned by the lack of SP in the first game, and may not dive into 2 thinking it's MP-only.

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          October 29, 2016 1:48 PM

          I love single player and it's the only reason I buy games. I'm just saying that's the lesson EA is going to take away from this. EA doesn't suck as much as Activision, but EA still sucks.

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      October 29, 2016 6:18 AM

      They really should have held this until next year when people finally burn out on bf1 and cod. I've played it and the game is really good, but I'd rather be playing bf1 right now.

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        October 29, 2016 6:58 AM

        Exactly. The holiday release schedule cramming is silly. Why not release these games in January or February?

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        October 29, 2016 7:24 AM

        In the very least they should have been separated by a month or two.

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        October 29, 2016 10:53 AM

        Yup. I liked the first game but have no desire in getting it or playing it right now. And may not even bother getting it later if the PC numbers are as low as some are suggesting.

        Everyone saw this coming, how the hell did EA not?

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      October 29, 2016 7:00 AM

      The game is awesome. At least so far. It's very pretty, runs great and the SP campaign is actually very well done so far. I was on the fence about this, then I wanted to show my support for the no paid DLC statement. That put me over the edge.

      Right now I can't seem to get MP working though.... not sure what's going on.

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        October 29, 2016 7:28 AM

        Yeah I bought two copies the second I read "no paid DLC".

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          October 29, 2016 8:09 AM

          I'm tempted to buy it just to reward them for not milking the customer for paid DLC, and I have no interest in FPS shooters.

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        October 29, 2016 4:22 PM

        I'm going to get it tonight now that I know there's SP in there. I chose to not buy bf,1 because of games overload, but I totally see why titanfall is in the red headed step child position in the market right now.

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      October 29, 2016 7:18 AM

      I couldn't get a game of Variety or Ground War going last night due to lack of players. It also took forever to get a Last Titan Standing match going early in the evening (though to be fair it got quicker as the night went on).

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      October 29, 2016 8:12 AM

      I am real tempted to buy this, but I am so hesitant to blow $60, have to install origin, and still risk it being dead after a few weeks =\

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          October 29, 2016 8:54 AM

          Fine. I bit.

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            October 29, 2016 8:56 AM

            Haha awesome.

            Add TheRealThomW in Origin to get your ass kicked by a guy holding a gamepad. ;)

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              October 29, 2016 9:21 AM

              Titanfall games are pretty friendly toward gamepads, right? I know it's an FPS, but is it the sort that demands a keyboard and mouse, like Quake?

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                October 29, 2016 9:43 AM

                Respawn chose a Braille R for their logo because "our games feel good."

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        October 29, 2016 8:52 AM

        It will be dead on PC. It's a console shooter through and through.

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          October 29, 2016 8:55 AM

          I didnt even think about that. Too late now.

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          October 29, 2016 9:23 AM

          Explain?

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          October 29, 2016 9:25 AM

          How so?

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          October 29, 2016 10:07 AM

          through and through
          Wrong and Wrong, it's designed to be both from the ground up, and lo and behold, it works.

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          October 29, 2016 10:22 AM

          it's got free dlc that will go right into next year. i think it'll last quite longer than the original

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          October 29, 2016 2:26 PM

          How so...there's plenty of twitchy reflex action which is the hallmark of a PC shooter IMHO.

          I mean it isn't Quake...but the mouse input is good and it has advanced movement.

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      October 29, 2016 8:59 AM

      That's sad because it's an absolute blast. Love how smooth the controls and gunplay are.

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      October 29, 2016 9:11 AM

      My thoughts on Titanfall 2.

      It looks like Titanfall 1.

      The robots are dumb. Why? Because they lose all sense of scale when everyone is a robot. You need little dudes running around.

      The levels look cramped- I'm this giant robot but I'm in a one block city of 4 story buildings.

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        October 29, 2016 10:08 AM

        I'm still really disappointed by the lack of the minions mechanic they had in the first game.

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          October 29, 2016 10:48 AM

          They are stil very much there - in modes like Attrition. I think they made the modes confusing though, especially the new one. Less would have been more here.

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          October 29, 2016 11:01 AM

          Bounty Hunt and Attrition are still heavily focused on/decided by minion farming.

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            October 29, 2016 11:09 AM

            Yeah, of course I figured that out after posting. Now that I've played a few Attrition matches, I like it a lot more.

            I can't figure out why I suck so much though, as I was a lot better at TF1.

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              October 29, 2016 12:26 PM

              You need to incorporate the slide into your wallrunning/bunnyhopping or you're going to lose a lot of momentum. I don't have it down yet, either.

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                October 29, 2016 2:28 PM

                Yeah I'm still getting used to it...the movement feels a little different and sliding adds a whole new wrinkle. That said I'm getting better and improving and the movement feels pretty good.

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                October 29, 2016 6:31 PM

                I definitely need to sit down and bind things to my extra mouse buttons. Sliding while moving with default controls is pretty bad.

    • reply
      October 29, 2016 9:39 AM

      Felt really burned by the first one. Not biting on this one because of that.

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      October 29, 2016 10:57 AM

      I'm sure it's great, but it's just too expensive for me.
      And I don't anticipate the price going down any time soon. By the time I can afford it I won't want to buy it because it's a multiplayer game.

      It doesn't even have a demo, battlefield one does, but you gotta pay £4 for the privilege

      • reply
        October 29, 2016 11:02 AM

        It can be had for 20% off from GMG and other places.

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        October 29, 2016 3:35 PM

        I am about 2 hrs in to the single player and it's pretty good. Reminds me of Call of Duty Advanced Warfare.

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      October 29, 2016 12:45 PM

      It really does feel like they are trying to kill it. They picked literally the worst possible release date possible. You cant just do that by chance or mistake, they knew specifically what would happen, especially considering the performance of the first game and its struggles. Maybe they want to be able to break contract for further support? i dont know the deets on the relationship with EA and this dev but from what i understand they arent a part of EA, but partners. maybe EA wants to end that relationship or perhaps have an excuse to scale it back. seems just like the kind of skeevy shit EA is famous for.

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      October 29, 2016 1:03 PM

      I wonder if this analyst has any ties to Activision.

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      October 29, 2016 1:45 PM

      No predictions from Michael Pachter? Not legit.

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      October 29, 2016 3:35 PM

      That would be a bummer. The game is damned good and I hope it gets enough of an audience to keep the multiplayer alive on PC and to encourage more games like it.

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      October 29, 2016 3:54 PM

      I hope the analyst is wrong, i am having MUCH more fun playing this than battlefield 1. Also, the single player was great, the match loading times aren't even long enough to look at what I unlock, and the customization is really well done.

      I felt great ripping the battery out of an enemy titan, then grappling onto a friendly and giving them juice.

      Attrition is the best game mode.

      that is all.

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      October 29, 2016 3:56 PM

      It sucks it was released in such a crowded space. I just finished the campaign and I think it's one of best shooters I've ever experienced. Feels like the best parts of Valve game, seamlessly blending combat, puzzles and, amazing navigation, all executed in a ridiculously slick fashion, and without repeating itself. Best in show mechanics.

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      October 29, 2016 4:23 PM

      I think that analyst is full of shit.

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      October 29, 2016 4:25 PM

      Bought it. Beat single player in about an hour, had a freaking BLAST.

      Did about an hour of multiplayer. We have any PC folk here? Thom promised and now wont play with me :(

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        October 29, 2016 4:26 PM

        Doh. Beat single player in about FOUR hours.

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          October 29, 2016 6:06 PM

          it took me about 6 ish, i think i went a bit slower than normal though.

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        October 29, 2016 4:39 PM

        Yes, many of us. Unfortunately the PC Network for Shacknews is fucked at the moment. I'm trying do do something about it.

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      October 29, 2016 5:23 PM

      I really like Titanfall and I really hate who ever made them release at this time. They basically killed this franchise and they can go fuck themselves.

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      October 29, 2016 6:18 PM

      I don't see many people talking about it but if you want to show MP based shooters you're done with paid additional levels, here's where you vote with your wallet.

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      October 30, 2016 10:00 PM

      i thought the beta/demo was good but i just bought bf1 and don't have time to play both. definitely will pick it up when it goes half off.

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      October 31, 2016 7:33 AM

      Well sadly EA I will be getting both your games on the cheap, cause neither included MWremastered. Also out of the three is still highly prefer the CoD MP.