Nintendo (NTDOY) cuts FY25 financial forecast on weaker than expected Switch hardware sales

Nintendo is out with financial results for its third quarter of FY25, and the company is once again decreasing its forecast on weak Switch console revenue.

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Nintendo's Q3 FY25 earnings report is out, and the company is once again lowering its forecast. The Big N's lower guidance is a hit to the top and bottom line in the final year of the original Nintendo Switch hardware cycle.

Screenshot of the notice of FY25 guidance modification.

Source: Nintendo Investor Relations

Nintendo now expects FY25 revenue to come in 7% lower than the company's last forecast issued in November 2024. Nintendo did up the company's exchange rate assumption for the U.S. Dollar to 150 yen per dollar from 140 yen per dollar, but weakness in console hardware sales was too much of a headwind to overcome. The Big N now expects to sell 11 million Nintendo Switch console units in its fiscal year ending March 31, 2025. This is a 12% decrease from the last forecast provided by the company.

Nintendo also lowered their dividend payout forecast in accordance with the company's capital return policy. While this decreased guidance might be disappointing news for some investors, Nintendo Switch did hit the impressive 150 million lifetime console unit sales milestone during the quarter.

FY25 was a bit a of resetting of expectations heading into a new console generation. What were once tailwinds from the Mario Movie effect have turned into very tough comparisons in what was a surprisingly solid FY24 for the company, and it seems like some potential Nintendo Switch purchasers are potentially waiting for more Switch 2 information before spending their hard-earned cash.

Picture of the Nintendo (NTDOY) chart from 2013 to today. Showing a nice uptrend driven by the Switch.

With the stock sitting at all-time highs, and the Switch 2 hype train just leaving the station, this quarterly report might not be what Nintendo investors are truly focusing in on in FY26 and beyond.


This article is only meant for educational purposes, and should not be taken as investment advice. Please consider your own investment time horizon, risk tolerance, and consult with a financial advisor before acting on this information.

Full Disclosure:

At the time of this article, Shacknews primary shareholder Asif A. Khan, his family members, or his company Virtue LLC had the following positions:

Long Nintendo via NTDOY shares

CEO/EIC/EIEIO

Asif Khan is the CEO, EIC, and majority shareholder of Shacknews. He began his career in video game journalism as a freelancer in 2001 for Tendobox.com. Asif is a CPA and was formerly an investment adviser representative. After much success in his own personal investments, he retired from his day job in financial services and is currently focused on new private investments. His favorite PC game of all time is Duke Nukem 3D, and he is an unapologetic fan of most things Nintendo. Asif first frequented the Shack when it was sCary's Shugashack to find all things Quake. When he is not immersed in investments or gaming he is a purveyor of fine electronic music. Asif also has an irrational love of Cleveland sports.

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