So, uh, I think to think I have a pretty good game-dar. That is, I usually have a hunch about what games are going to be good/fun, and which ones are going to be disappointing. It's a mix of good research (previews, precedent of the developer, development history) and intuition.

Gonna be honest: Didn't see this one coming.

http://www.metacritic.com/game/xbox-360/far-cry-3

Granted, it's only a dozen reviews so far and metacritic averages are waaaaaaaaaaaaay more likely to go down than up over time. But still, awesome scores and a very surprised tone in almost all of the reviews so far (yes, I read them).

So I guess the question is, does anybody think it was a mistake for Ubisoft to release the game in December, when games released that month tend not to do so well. There's always one or two that try to make hay on the tail end of the games rush, and only ever end up getting ignored cause consumers blew their load (excitement and money) on earlier heavy hitters.

Oh, and additional question: Do you have intuition about what games are gonna be great vs disappointing?