Analysts Weigh in on Nintendo 3DS 2011 Release, Nintendo Explains

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Nintendo's decision to miss the lucrative holiday season and launch the new 3DS in early 2011 has raised a few eyebrows but was apparently made to ensure there was an adequate supply of the handheld, which boasts a 3D screen that doesn't require special glasses.

"At first we thought it would be desirable to launch the 3DS within the year, so we made our forecasts on that basis," Nintendo president Satoru Iwata said during an analysts' conference. "At this point it is clear that if we launch within the year, we will not be able to supply enough units." Nintendo's Wii was notoriously difficult to find long after its holiday season launch in November 2006.

Nintendo announced yesterday that the 3DS will launch in Japan on February 26, 2011, priced at 25,000 yen (around $299 US), then hit North America and Europe in March. It has predicted selling 4 million Nintendo 3DS hardware units by the end of March 2011.

As you'd expect, analysts including the famous/infamous Michael Pachter of investment firm Wedbush Morgan have weighed in with their opinions on Nintendo's news.

"Looking at how Nintendo does things," Pachter told Joystiq, "if you're launching February 26 in Japan, and their earnings reports say before the end of the fiscal year in U.S. and Europe--is there any prayer, even a 1 percent chance that they'll launch a week later in the U.S., March 5? No freaking way. It's not even remotely possible they're launching first half of March. I'm betting it gets delayed until April in Europe and U.S.."

Pachter also predicted a rise in the standard software price. "Look at the price of Nintendo first-party games on the DS," he explained. "They all launch at $34.99 or $39.99, well above the standard $29.99 software price point. I think they'll try [the standard price] at $34.99. Who knows if they'll get it, but if the 3DS sells at $250, they'll know they've already got a wealthy consumer."

Jesse Divnich of market research company EEDAR, meanwhile, believes that the 2011 launch "has little to do with manufacturing limitations and everything to do with Nintendo's decision to ensure a strong third-party launch line-up."

"Historically, third-party launch titles have underperformed compared to their first-party counterparts, which is almost entirely due to the limited development schedules available to third-parties," he said. "By allowing additional development time through March 2011, a superior product lineup should be available at launch, something all gamers can appreciate."

Nintendo has yet to announce North American and European launch dates and prices for the 3DS. Divinch predicts it'll cost $249 to $299 while Pachter says "Nintendo will charge $250 and people will pay it."

From The Chatty
  • reply
    September 30, 2010 9:24 AM

    I predict I won't buy a 3DS in Q1 2011 unless my earnings report is unexpectedly positive.

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      September 30, 2010 9:33 AM

      Given the lineup I won't buy a 3DS in Q1 2011 even if my earnings report is unexpectedly positive.

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        September 30, 2010 9:34 AM

        are you kidding me, the line up for the 3DS is pretty outstanding.

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          September 30, 2010 9:44 AM

          Maybe, but I'm not exited. All of those are sequels (or remakes). And from what (little) we have seen so far it looks like those are just the same old games as before but in 3D.. Nintendo can make great hardware innovations but when it comes to new games and new IPs they're nowhere to be seen..
          I'm not paying three hundred bucks for that.

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            September 30, 2010 9:55 AM

            I'm excited enough about MML3 to buy it just for that.

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              September 30, 2010 11:22 AM

              ^^^This and Kid Icarus look good. Mario Kart would also be awesome on the 3DS

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            September 30, 2010 9:56 AM

            I still don't see why they should make a new IP for the sake of making a new IP.

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              September 30, 2010 10:12 AM

              Some people are tied of the same characters and storylines after 20+ years.. I love Mario/Zelda/Metroid/Whatevah.. but something new once in a while doesn't hurt.
              The last decent new IP they did was Pikmin and that was nearly 10 years ago...

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                September 30, 2010 11:22 AM

                They've only go so much development time and for every person wanting NEW there is another wanting SEQUEL. They've also spent a lot of time building the DS and Wii concepts with first party software which probably drained resources that might have worked on new, traditional, IPs.

                I'm ready for the 3DS. Game's lineup looks really solid and not packed with tech-demos. The fact there is lots of third party support means you can get your new IP and still have your old Nintendo favorites. The biggest decision for me is not if I'm going to buy but how many and what games I'm going to get on launch day.

                Sad there is no GPS in there though. That would have really made this worth keeping in the car for navigation (imagine Mario style maps LOL) and opened up a lot of AR gaming and the whole fitness stuff.

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            September 30, 2010 12:58 PM

            Yes, because clearly sequels are tired and yesterdays news. Nobody cares about games like Halo, Gears of War, God of War, Modern Warfare, Madden, or Resident Evil any more. Lol.

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