Analysts Discuss Necessity of Holiday Game Rush

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The current economic climate may be preventing gamers from buying every game on their must-play list, but going by release schedules for the now-underway holiday season, most gamers wouldn't have the time anyway. There are simply too many games coming out.

The reason for the glut of gaming goodness hasn't changed, according to opinions of games industry financial analysts. "At Christmas there are two buyers: the user and the gift giver. The rest of the year, there is only one buyer," remarked well-known analyst Michael Pachter in an Edge feature.

"If this were the cinema business, this would be like five massive movies coming out in the same week: Harry Potter, Batman, James Bond, Spider-Man--all coming out at the same time," joked Mike Hickey with Janco Partners.

The prevailing opinion among anaylsts is that the non-winter months of the year are more viable than is often thought. "Look at GTA IV. It proves you can have a wider window than the three months of the holiday season," said Hickey. "It would make more sense to spread releases out," added Pachter in agreement.

For publishers slowly edging away from holiday releases, the trick is working: Bethesda's Fallout 3, an October release, has sold 4.7 million copies. Ubisoft Montreal's Far Cry 2, also an October baby, has beaten one million.

But that opening in the calendar could only prove viable for high profile releases. "If you release during the holiday period and sales are bad, no one's going to blame you; you can just say too many games were on the shelf at the same time," offered Hickey.

On the other hand, the industry may have reached a point where holiday sales of high-demand games are cannibalizing each other. "The Q4 strategy probably helps big games and hurts others," remarked Pachter. "There is no question that GTA would have sold more at holiday than with an April release," he added, referring to the game's intended holiday 2007 release.

In an age of publicly-traded game publishers, it may be a matter of teaching an old dog new tricks. In Hickey's words, "Old habits are hard to kick. You get set in a pattern like you're still in the toy business."

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From The Chatty
  • reply
    November 12, 2008 12:53 PM

    Christ yes. I was just talking about this with someone today. At the very least spread a few more throughout the year. OFten there's only a single big hitter in each of the first six months. Also, PC gamers in particular will buy games whenever since we're the original hardcore. and that's not a console gamer slight, just different markets

    • reply
      November 12, 2008 2:17 PM

      I woulda bought Sacred 2 if Fallout 3 didn't come out a week before. That, along with Left 4 Dead means
      Sacred 2 gets the shelf until I finish the others. If releases were more staggered, I'd be spending more
      money, thats for sure.

    • reply
      November 12, 2008 4:38 PM

      I remember Serious Sam being released back in spring 2001, UT2K4, FarCry, and Painkiller being released in spring 2004, and Doom 3 being released back in mid-summer 2004. Those were awesome times to pick up a new game and get rolling on it, since there wasn't any contention with other big releases (though Far Cry, Painkiller and UT2K4 together was excellent, since those three games shined in different parts of the FPS gameplay spectrum).

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