Analysts Discuss Necessity of Holiday Game Rush

The current economic climate may be preventing gamers from buying every game on their must-play list, but going by release schedules for the now-underway holiday season, most gamers wouldn't have the time anyway. There are simply too many games coming out.

The reason for the glut of gaming goodness hasn't changed, according to opinions of games industry financial analysts. "At Christmas there are two buyers: the user and the gift giver. The rest of the year, there is only one buyer," remarked well-known analyst Michael Pachter in an Edge feature.

"If this were the cinema business, this would be like five massive movies coming out in the same week: Harry Potter, Batman, James Bond, Spider-Man--all coming out at the same time," joked Mike Hickey with Janco Partners.

The prevailing opinion among anaylsts is that the non-winter months of the year are more viable than is often thought. "Look at GTA IV. It proves you can have a wider window than the three months of the holiday season," said Hickey. "It would make more sense to spread releases out," added Pachter in agreement.

For publishers slowly edging away from holiday releases, the trick is working: Bethesda's Fallout 3, an October release, has sold 4.7 million copies. Ubisoft Montreal's Far Cry 2, also an October baby, has beaten one million.

But that opening in the calendar could only prove viable for high profile releases. "If you release during the holiday period and sales are bad, no one's going to blame you; you can just say too many games were on the shelf at the same time," offered Hickey.

On the other hand, the industry may have reached a point where holiday sales of high-demand games are cannibalizing each other. "The Q4 strategy probably helps big games and hurts others," remarked Pachter. "There is no question that GTA would have sold more at holiday than with an April release," he added, referring to the game's intended holiday 2007 release.

In an age of publicly-traded game publishers, it may be a matter of teaching an old dog new tricks. In Hickey's words, "Old habits are hard to kick. You get set in a pattern like you're still in the toy business."