Analyst: Next-Gen Starts in 2010
by Aaron Linde, Feb 14, 2008 1:50pm PSTPacific Crest Securities analyst Evan Wilson has suggested that Microsoft and Nintendo will unveil hardware follow-ups to the Xbox 360 and Wii in 2010.
"We believe that peak industry sales will occur in 2010, given that Microsoft will likely introduce its next console that year and Nintendo will likely launch before then," Wilson told GameSpot. "Further, 2010 is also likely to coincide with the end of the Nintendo DS and Sony PSP cycles."
The 360 and Wii were released in late 2005 and 2006 respectively, pinning Wilson's projections on a four to five year product life cycle for the consoles. Wilson made no projection for a PlayStation 3 follow-up, owing perhaps to the high costs of the PlayStation 3 and Sony's projections of a ten year life cycle for the console.
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Comments
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1) be 100% compatible with the 360
2) have a Blu Ray drive in it
3) Include alot of bells and whistles that the 360 didn't have (wireless adapter, HDMI etc. etc.)
4) come with a 500GB HDD
5) cost $300.
Basically, just a better designed 360.
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We've barely just cracked the potential of the current gen machines, and with dev times eaking up towards 2 years per title easy, it's going to be longer than 2010 before anyone is ready for next next gen.
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I'd want to see Shadow of the Collossus for next gen, I'd want to see Myst, Zelda, Tron, Spore, Another World.. I want style and originality to please my eyes and my brain.Yet 80% of the games will use regular 'realistic setting' and/or realistic rendering stuff, and 80% of those games will be poorly produced. :(
I want to see the creativity we had in the late 80s/early 90s. Face it, 80% of the game were really bad, but 80% of them were also really original. For the two last generations many games have been really well done, but very few are actually *original* (visually).
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All the hardware would bring is the ability to do what is currently being done at 1920x1080 and the Xbox 360's own very good scaler downplays the need for 1080p res games.
Fragmenting the developer and user base of your platform is not a good thing to do especially with the insane development costs of today's games. Would you end up with a lower res 720p game on the Xbox 360 and a higher red 1080p game on the Xbox720 ? I know the Xbox borrows a lot from PC gaming but that is pushing it.
Nintendo on other hand that's a maybe, if they were looking to get more multi-platform support a Wii-2 with a more conventional GPU hardware would go a long way towards securing more third party titles that are only on the Xbox 360/PS3 even if the Wii-2 hardware is only outputting SD resolutions with lower quality assets.
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It's sure as hell a fuckload better than the PC upgrade cycle.
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No, you have this-gen.
What? I just upgraded from this-gen.
No, now that's last-gen.
When is next-gen?
Later.
What will next-gen be later?
This-gen.
What will my last-gen be later?
Downloadable content for next-gen's this-gen.
So my last-gen games will be callbacks to this-gen in next-gen?
Third base!
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Nothing like an estimate on when we'll be looking at the next generation short, fat and hairy Italian plumber.
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Well, in all fairness, it's been 13 years since "Toy Story", and we still haven't achieved that degree of graphical fidelity, even though our shaders today are more advanced than then.
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